A
pre-Christmas week ahead of us and more and more traders will be on holidays
already or just involved in preparation for the Christmas. Therefore low liquidity and unpredictible changes in volatility are expected. We are coming to the end of “December Rate Decision Season” however,
we still have BoJ and couple of GDPs ahead duering the coming week so it doesn’t look boring at all.
Monday:
We will
start the week with ANZ Business Confidence which was declining 2 month in a
row. From broader perspective the Q is if the overall uptrend can regain
momentum. The German Ifo Business Climate survey is the most important data of
the day and is close to its all-time highs. The consensus expects further
modest gains this time as overall optimism is on the rise.
Tuesday:
The RBA Monetary
Policy Meeting Minutes as it was a non-event shouldn’t cause too much volatility
as market is waiting for the BoJ rate decision and MP statement. This however
is also expected to be a non-event as the weak yen is what the BoJ wanted, and
its reality now also the 10y govie yields are rising which is the new goal for
the central bank. The rest of the day be event free, except the weekly API Crude
Oil Stock which will be important for CAD and NOK traders. Later the GDP Dairy
Price Index from New Zealand can add to the volatility, the country being the 5th
biggest dairy exporter of the world this price index shows how a significant
part of the country will perform in the near future.
Wednesday:
The Asian
session should be quiet and the first data worth to watch is the UK Public Sector
Net Borrowing, which is expected to rise significantly in November. The
afternoon we have US Existing Home Sales which is in modest uptrend but according
to the positive news from the housing industry I expect another increase
despite the consensus see a slight decline to come. EIA Crude Oil Inventories are
scheduled for the afternoon and expect the inventories to rise due to the year end
and tax optimisation from refineries. This could bring further pressure on
crude prices after the post-OPEC optimism seems to be fading last week. The New
Zealand Q3 GDP will be important for kiwi traders which got under pressure with
aussie following the appreciation of the USD. The growth in New Zealand is the highest
among developed countries but the main driver of growth was recently the
housing boom which could be fading recently. Let’s see.
Thursday:
The day
will start in the afternoon with Canadian Core CPI (November) and Core Retail
Sales (for October). Both very important as repeatedly failing to confirm the
optimism of analysts. The same time we will have a bunch of data from US, Durable
Goods Orders, Final GDP and Jobless Claimsfrom which the Final GDP release will
be the most important following the surprise jump in the previous release when
despite pessimistic expectations growth jumped above 3%.
Friday:
Last trading
day before Christmas will be most probably quiet with subdued liquidity. In the
morning the UK Current account and Final GDP will be the most important data
points. The afternoon the Canadian GDP m/m could bring some change into the
holiday mood followed by the US New Home Sales and revision of UoM Consumer Sentiment.
The only advice from me is to manage your risk with position saying as
unexpected moves and gap risk will be high as most of the market will be
already on vacation.
Always remember to watch your risk
and be consistent.
Mr Tech Man
DISCLAIMER: This material was
created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading
team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It
is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the
creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses
resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider
this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016.
Contact:
landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com
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